Predicting Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Shahrood Region Using CMIP6 Climate Models with a Novel Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach: OPLO-POCOD

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering , Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.

2 Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology , Shahrood, Iran

3 Department of Civil Engineering, Shahrood Institute of Higher Education, Shahrood.Shahrood, Iran.

Abstract

Objective: Climate change threatens water security in semi-arid Shahrood by increasing evaporation and water demand while reducing precipitation and groundwater recharge. This study assesses these impacts using advanced climate models and future climate scenarios.
 
Method: This study uses Shahrood’s monthly precipitation and temperature data and evaluates three CMIP6 climate models using the OPLO-POCOD MCDM method based on R², MAE, and KGE. The best-performing model was then downscaled using the delta change factor method.
 
Results: CMCC-EMS2 was identified as the best-performing model for both precipitation and temperature. OPLO-POCOD confirmed its superiority with the lowest lost-opportunity values. Future projections indicate 1.5–7.3% decreases in precipitation and temperature increases of about 1.4–1.9°C under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
 
Conclusions: Climate change is expected to reduce runoff and aquifer recharge while increasing groundwater pressure and water-resource instability. The OPLO-POCOD method provides a reliable approach for climate-model selection. Future research should use ensemble models and compare CMIP6 with CMIP5 to reduce uncertainty and improve projections.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Advanced Technologies in Water Efficiency
Volume 6, Issue 3
September 2026
Pages 26-55

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 08 December 2025
  • Accept Date: 10 February 2026

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