Estimation of Maximum Flood Discharge in Ungauged Basins (Case Study: Rivers of Shahrud County)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Water and Soil, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.

2 Department of Water and Environmental, Civil Engineering Faculty, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.

Abstract

Objective: This study evaluates the accuracy of several empirical methods (Deacon, Fuller, Specific Flood, and Franco‑Rodier) for estimating flood discharge in ungauged rivers of Semnan Province and identifies the most suitable method and its error for each river.
 
Method: Annual flood statistics from water gauge stations were collected and rigorously validated through visual inspection, statistical analysis (including mean and standard deviation), and outlier tests. Data independence was assessed via the run test, while homogeneity was verified using double mass curves. Four empirical methods were applied to estimate flood discharge based on physiographic watershed characteristics. Performance was evaluated by comparing results against statistical benchmarks and calculating relative errors for each river. The study focused on rivers originating from the Alborz Mountains, which are characterized by their short lengths and variable salinity.
 
Results: The results showed that the Specific Flood method achieved the highest accuracy for the Tash Sofla River, with an error of 35.63%. Fuller’s method performed best for the Farahzad River, having only a 3.71% error. Deacon’s method proved to be the most effective for the Majan River, with an 18.83% error, while Franco-Rodier delivered the best results for the Abersaj River, with a 38.91% error. Data homogeneity and randomness were confirmed across all stations. The run test validated the randomness of the flow, and the double mass curves indicated consistent hydrological behavior. Notably, accuracy varied significantly among the rivers, highlighting the importance of context in determining effectiveness.
 
Conclusions: Empirical methods can provide acceptable flood estimates in ungauged basins but require careful selection based on river-specific characteristics. Fuller’s method achieved exceptional precision (3.71% error) for the Farahzad River, demonstrating its potential for targeted applications. However, no universal method emerged, as performance depended on watershed properties, such as terrain and flow regime. Practitioners should prioritize localized validation to minimize errors and ensure accuracy. These findings support the use of empirical approaches when traditional data are unavailable, thereby enhancing flood resilience in vulnerable regions.

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Main Subjects

References

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Advanced Technologies in Water Efficiency
Volume 6, Issue 2
July 2026
Pages 65-83

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History

  • Receive Date: 30 November 2024
  • Revise Date: 10 March 2025
  • Accept Date: 25 July 2025

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